Prediction number 3

Let’s talk about how the machine vision business will fare in 2010. Most of the pundits seem to agree that the outlook is for a better year than 2009 but they’re all fairly cautious.

I beg to differ. In talking to friends and colleagues around the industry, I think we’re on the cusp of a quite rapid rebound. In fact I think Q1 will be moderately healthy with Q2 seeing a dramatic acceleration in spending before demand levels off late in Q3 and stays flat in Q4.

Why? Well I don’t claim to have much insight into economic trends, but I do have an understanding of how company purchasing works. Spending restrictions in 2009 have created a lot of pent up demand – many engineers have pet projects ready to go – and as companies move in to a new financial year the purse strings will be relaxed. This means there’ll be a lot of orders placed for vision sensors and smart cameras, but not so much at first for components of PC-based vision systems.

These higher-end systems tend to be incorporated into capital equipment purchases, and while I believe this money will start to flow again, it takes time to push projects through the approval processes. For these system-level expenditures this means that orders will start to go out in the second and third quarters, after which I fully expect the bean counters to clamp down on spending.

Am I talking sense or talking rubbish? Let me know what you think through the “Comment” function.