“Always
get to the original source,” or so one of my college tutors
lectured me. It’s a good policy but I’m going to break it by
sharing some hearsay.
I
heard recently that the AIA is forecasting 4% growth in the machine
vision market for 2013. Of course, when we’re 75% of the way
through the year it doesn’t seem too hard to make such a
prediction, but leaving that aside, I also heard that unit prices
continue to drop by 5 – 10% a year.
It
doesn’t take a math post-doc to see that this means unit volumes
are growing quite rapidly. I infer from that, that ever more machine
vision systems are being deployed. And in addition, as resolutions
are going up, the price-per-pixel is dropping fast. (I’m gathering
my own data on this and hope to have something to publish quite
soon.)
But
smaller pixels mean more noise in the image, and smaller cameras,
(which seems to be another industry trend,) means heat becomes a
bigger issue, and also means more noise.
So
I suggest we are approaching an inflexion point at which pixels will
stop shrinking. Yet we will want more resolution, so sensors will
have to grow. The way I look at it then, cameras will start to get
bigger, something else will take over from the C-mount lens format,
and prices will begin to rise.
That’s
the future I anticipate. What’s your view?
No comments:
Post a Comment